The Toolbox
The calculators we actually use, free and in your browser. Nothing here is tracked, gated, or upsold. The last one — the confidence-interval check — is the exact math our own system must pass before a bet gets placed. It's also the tool most likely to tell you something you don't want to hear.
Odds Converter
American ⇄ decimal ⇄ implied probability.
Break-Even Win Rate
The win percentage a price demands before you make a cent.
Expected Value
Your estimated win probability vs the price you're being offered.
Kelly Stake
Optimal fraction of bankroll — shown at full, half, and quarter Kelly (almost nobody should bet full Kelly).
Hedge Lock-In
You hold a ticket; the other side is now available at some price. How much do you bet to lock the same profit either way?
Is Your Record Real? (Wilson 95%)
Enter a win-loss record and the price you typically pay. This computes the 95% confidence interval on your TRUE win rate and compares the lower bound to the break-even rate. This is the gate our own system must pass before money moves — and as of mid-June our live record still reads MARGINAL at typical juice. If it says the same about yours, the honest play is small stakes until the sample grows.
Want to see these in action on real bets? The Grind applies them nightly; ML Theory shows the live bankroll they're guarding.