Real Money · On-Chain
The Polymarket Ledger
Every bet since June 9, 2026 · rebuilt nightly from the chain
This is the complete history of our Polymarket account — not a curated track record. It is generated from the wallet's on-chain activity feed (every fill, every redeem), grouped one row per market. The MLB daemon's plays are here, but so are the WNBA experiment, the World Cup copies, the whale-alert follows, and every discretionary bet a human talked themselves into. If we bet it, it's on this page.
−$50.86
Net P&L · settled
157-135
Record (292 settled tickets)
$1450.07
Total staked (recycled ~$5 units)
0
Open positions
By book
| Book | Bets | W-L | Staked | P&L | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MLB | 262 | 141-121 | $1299.57 | −$43.10 | -3.3% |
| World Cup | 22 | 12-10 | $111.24 | +$5.53 | +5.0% |
| WNBA | 6 | 4-2 | $29.07 | −$3.10 | -10.7% |
| Other | 2 | 0-2 | $10.19 | −$10.19 | -100.0% |
What happened to "The Moneyline Theory"?
This page replaced it. The experiment asked whether late-sharp-money dogs win outright often enough that the plus-money moneyline beats the juiced +1.5 runline. Our July 1 internal audit answered it: across every leg at true fill cost, the ML legs on non-rule games were net losers — the apparent ML profit was carried almost entirely by one signal (Rule C) plus a handful of line-flip flukes. Policy since July 1: rule fires still take both legs; everything else is runline-only. The theory got its answer; the ledger keeps the receipts.
Every bet, on the record
| Date | Bet | Entry | Cost | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-18 | MLB Miami Marlins Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) | 64¢ (-179) | $7.40 | LOST −$7.40 |
| 07-18 | MLB Miami Marlins Miami Marlins vs. Milwaukee Brewers | 46¢ (+116) | $7.38 | LOST −$7.38 |
| 07-18 | MLB Tampa Bay Rays Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5) | 67¢ (-204) | $7.40 | WON +$3.63 |
| 07-18 | MLB Tampa Bay Rays Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox | 50¢ (-101) | $7.39 | LOST −$7.39 |
| 07-18 | MLB San Diego Padres Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5) | 42¢ (+137) | $7.36 | LOST −$7.36 |
| 07-18 | MLB Cincinnati Reds Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5) | 44¢ (+126) | $7.37 | LOST −$7.37 |
| 07-15 | World Cup Argentina England vs. Argentina: Team to Advance | 48¢ (+109) | $4.87 | WON +$5.32 |
| 07-15 | World Cup Yes Will England win on 2026-07-15? | 36¢ (+175) | $4.92 | LOST −$4.92 |
| 07-12 | MLB Colorado Rockies Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5) | 61¢ (-158) | $7.41 | LOST −$7.41 |
| 07-12 | MLB Colorado Rockies Colorado Rockies vs. San Francisco Giants | 44¢ (+126) | $7.37 | LOST −$7.37 |
| 07-12 | MLB Atlanta Braves Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5) | 65¢ (-187) | $7.40 | WON +$3.96 |
| 07-12 | MLB Atlanta Braves Atlanta Braves vs. St. Louis Cardinals | 47¢ (+112) | $7.38 | WON +$8.24 |
| 07-12 | MLB Athletics Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5) | 62¢ (-164) | $7.40 | LOST −$7.40 |
| 07-12 | MLB Athletics Athletics vs. Chicago White Sox | 43¢ (+131) | $7.37 | LOST −$7.37 |
| 07-12 | MLB Milwaukee Brewers Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5) | 66¢ (-195) | $7.40 | LOST −$7.40 |
| 07-12 | MLB Milwaukee Brewers Milwaukee Brewers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates | 49¢ (+103) | $7.39 | LOST −$7.39 |
| 07-11 | MLB Kansas City Royals Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5) | 61¢ (-158) | $7.41 | LOST −$7.41 |
| 07-11 | MLB Kansas City Royals Kansas City Royals vs. Baltimore Orioles | 42¢ (+137) | $7.36 | LOST −$7.36 |
| 07-11 | MLB Philadelphia Phillies Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) | 44¢ (+126) | $7.37 | WON +$9.30 |
| 07-10 | MLB Los Angeles Angels Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5) | 60¢ (-151) | $7.41 | WON +$4.89 |
| 07-10 | MLB Los Angeles Angels Los Angeles Angels vs. Minnesota Twins | 43¢ (+131) | $7.37 | WON +$9.68 |
| 07-10 | MLB Boston Red Sox Spread: New York Mets (-1.5) | 62¢ (-164) | $7.40 | WON +$4.50 |
| 07-10 | MLB Boston Red Sox Boston Red Sox vs. New York Mets | 44¢ (+126) | $7.37 | WON +$9.30 |
| 07-10 | MLB New York Yankees Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) | 49¢ (+103) | $7.39 | WON +$7.61 |
| 07-10 | MLB Milwaukee Brewers Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5) | 65¢ (-187) | $7.40 | WON +$3.96 |
| 07-10 | MLB Milwaukee Brewers Milwaukee Brewers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates | 47¢ (+112) | $7.38 | LOST −$7.38 |
| 07-09 | WNBA Las Vegas Aces Las Vegas Aces vs. PortlandFire | 81¢ (-439) | $4.85 | WON +$1.10 |
| 07-09 | MLB Colorado Rockies Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5) | 65¢ (-183) | $7.35 | LOST −$7.35 |
| 07-09 | MLB Colorado Rockies Colorado Rockies vs. San Francisco Giants | 48¢ (+109) | $7.31 | LOST −$7.31 |
| 07-09 | MLB Arizona Diamondbacks Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5) | 65¢ (-183) | $7.35 | WON +$4.01 |
| 07-09 | WNBA Atlanta Dream Seattle Storm vs. Atlanta Dream | 84¢ (-541) | $4.85 | WON +$0.90 |
| 07-09 | World Cup Over France vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 | 52¢ (-107) | $5.07 | LOST −$5.07 |
| 07-09 | MLB Minnesota Twins Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5) | 60¢ (-148) | $12.66 | LOST −$12.66 |
| 07-09 | MLB Minnesota Twins Cleveland Guardians vs. Minnesota Twins | 48¢ (+109) | $12.70 | LOST −$12.70 |
| 07-09 | MLB Chicago Cubs Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5) | 64¢ (-175) | $12.64 | WON +$7.20 |
| 07-09 | MLB New York Yankees Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) | 61¢ (-155) | $12.65 | WON +$8.18 |
| 07-08 | MLB Arizona Diamondbacks Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5) | 63¢ (-168) | $7.59 | LOST −$7.59 |
| 07-08 | MLB Arizona Diamondbacks Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Diego Padres | 45¢ (+124) | $7.63 | LOST −$7.63 |
| 07-08 | MLB Colorado Rockies Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) | 46¢ (+119) | $7.63 | WON +$9.04 |
| 07-08 | MLB Colorado Rockies Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers | 30¢ (+238) | $7.66 | LOST −$7.66 |
| 07-08 | MLB Los Angeles Angels Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5) | 64¢ (-175) | $7.58 | WON +$4.32 |
| 07-08 | MLB Los Angeles Angels Los Angeles Angels vs. Texas Rangers | 46¢ (+119) | $7.63 | WON +$9.04 |
| 07-08 | MLB Boston Red Sox Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5) | 67¢ (-200) | $7.57 | WON +$3.79 |
| 07-08 | MLB Cleveland Guardians Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5) | 65¢ (-183) | $7.58 | WON +$4.14 |
| 07-08 | MLB Atlanta Braves Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5) | 66¢ (-191) | $7.58 | WON +$3.96 |
| 07-08 | MLB Chicago Cubs Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5) | 62¢ (-161) | $7.59 | WON +$4.71 |
| 07-08 | MLB Chicago Cubs Chicago Cubs vs. Baltimore Orioles | 47¢ (+114) | $7.62 | WON +$8.68 |
| 07-07 | MLB San Francisco Giants Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5) | 63¢ (-168) | $7.59 | LOST −$7.59 |
| 07-07 | MLB San Francisco Giants Toronto Blue Jays vs. San Francisco Giants | 49¢ (+105) | $7.61 | LOST −$7.61 |
| 07-07 | MLB Arizona Diamondbacks Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5) | 66¢ (-191) | $7.58 | LOST −$7.58 |
| 07-07 | MLB Arizona Diamondbacks Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Diego Padres | 49¢ (+106) | $7.62 | LOST −$7.62 |
| 07-07 | MLB Los Angeles Angels Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5) | 61¢ (-155) | $7.59 | LOST −$7.59 |
| 07-07 | MLB Los Angeles Angels Los Angeles Angels vs. Texas Rangers | 41¢ (+146) | $7.63 | LOST −$7.63 |
| 07-07 | MLB Chicago White Sox Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5) | 61¢ (-155) | $7.59 | LOST −$7.59 |
| 07-07 | MLB Chicago White Sox Boston Red Sox vs. Chicago White Sox | 48¢ (+110) | $7.62 | LOST −$7.62 |
| 07-07 | MLB Cleveland Guardians Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5) | 68¢ (-209) | $7.57 | LOST −$7.57 |
| 07-07 | MLB New York Yankees Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) | 65¢ (-183) | $7.58 | LOST −$7.58 |
| 07-07 | MLB Athletics Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5) | 53¢ (-112) | $7.61 | LOST −$7.61 |
| 07-07 | MLB Athletics Athletics vs. Detroit Tigers | 34¢ (+197) | $7.65 | LOST −$7.65 |
| 07-07 | Other Naomi Osaka Wimbledon WTA: Naomi Osaka vs Karolina Muchova | 30¢ (+238) | $5.10 | LOST −$5.10 |
| 07-07 | Other Felix Auger-Aliassime Wimbledon ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Novak Djokovic | 43¢ (+134) | $5.08 | LOST −$5.08 |
| 07-06 | MLB Houston Astros Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5) | 66¢ (-191) | $5.05 | WON +$2.64 |
| 07-06 | MLB Houston Astros Houston Astros vs. Washington Nationals | 49¢ (+103) | $5.08 | LOST −$5.08 |
| 07-05 | MLB San Diego Padres Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) | 50¢ (+101) | $5.07 | WON +$5.12 |
| 07-05 | MLB San Diego Padres San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Dodgers | 35¢ (+188) | $5.10 | WON +$9.61 |
| 07-05 | WNBA Las Vegas Aces Indiana Fever vs. Las Vegas Aces | 59¢ (-142) | $4.81 | LOST −$4.81 |
| 07-05 | MLB Miami Marlins Spread: Athletics (-1.5) | 66¢ (-191) | $5.05 | WON +$2.64 |
| 07-05 | MLB Arizona Diamondbacks Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) | 60¢ (-148) | $5.06 | WON +$3.41 |
| 07-05 | MLB Arizona Diamondbacks Milwaukee Brewers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks | 49¢ (+105) | $5.08 | LOST −$5.08 |
| 07-05 | MLB Colorado Rockies Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5) | 58¢ (-137) | $5.06 | WON +$3.71 |
| 07-05 | MLB Colorado Rockies San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies | 49¢ (+105) | $5.08 | WON +$5.34 |
| 07-05 | MLB Houston Astros Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) | 65¢ (-183) | $5.05 | WON +$2.76 |
| 07-05 | MLB Chicago White Sox Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5) | 64¢ (-175) | $5.06 | WON +$2.88 |
| 07-05 | MLB Chicago White Sox Chicago White Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians | 46¢ (+119) | $5.08 | WON +$6.03 |
| 07-05 | MLB Minnesota Twins Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) | 64¢ (-175) | $5.06 | WON +$2.88 |
| 07-05 | MLB Minnesota Twins Minnesota Twins vs. New York Yankees | 46¢ (+119) | $5.08 | WON +$6.03 |
| 07-05 | World Cup Mexico Mexico vs. England: Team to Advance | 50¢ (+101) | $5.07 | LOST −$5.07 |
| 07-05 | MLB Cincinnati Reds Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5) | 62¢ (-161) | $5.05 | WON +$3.14 |
| 07-05 | MLB Cincinnati Reds Baltimore Orioles vs. Cincinnati Reds | 50¢ (+101) | $5.07 | WON +$5.12 |
| 07-05 | MLB Pittsburgh Pirates Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5) | 62¢ (-161) | $5.05 | WON +$3.14 |
| 07-05 | MLB Pittsburgh Pirates Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Washington Nationals | 44¢ (+129) | $5.09 | WON +$6.54 |
| 07-05 | MLB New York Mets Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) | 67¢ (-200) | $5.05 | WON +$2.53 |
| 07-05 | MLB New York Mets New York Mets vs. Atlanta Braves | 51¢ (-103) | $5.08 | WON +$4.92 |
| 07-04 | WNBA Seattle Storm PortlandFire vs. Seattle Storm | 64¢ (-175) | $4.83 | LOST −$4.83 |
| 07-04 | MLB Baltimore Orioles Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5) | 64¢ (-175) | $5.06 | WON +$2.88 |
| 07-04 | World Cup Paraguay Spread: France (-1.5) | 46¢ (+119) | $5.08 | WON +$6.03 |
| 07-04 | MLB Texas Rangers Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5) | 62¢ (-161) | $5.05 | LOST −$5.05 |
| 07-04 | MLB Texas Rangers Detroit Tigers vs. Texas Rangers | 48¢ (+109) | $5.08 | LOST −$5.08 |
| 07-03 | MLB Miami Marlins Spread: Athletics (-1.5) | 62¢ (-161) | $5.05 | WON +$3.14 |
| 07-03 | MLB Colorado Rockies Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5) | 53¢ (-112) | $5.07 | WON +$4.54 |
| 07-03 | MLB Colorado Rockies San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies | 44¢ (+129) | $5.09 | WON +$6.54 |
| 07-03 | MLB Cincinnati Reds Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5) | 59¢ (-142) | $5.06 | LOST −$5.06 |
| 07-03 | MLB Cincinnati Reds Baltimore Orioles vs. Cincinnati Reds | 48¢ (+109) | $5.08 | LOST −$5.08 |
| 07-02 | WNBA Phoenix Mercury Seattle Storm vs. Phoenix Mercury | 63¢ (-168) | $4.82 | WON +$2.87 |
| 07-02 | MLB Los Angeles Angels Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5) | 54¢ (-116) | $5.16 | WON +$4.45 |
| 07-02 | MLB Los Angeles Angels Los Angeles Angels vs. Seattle Mariners | 35¢ (+188) | $5.10 | LOST −$5.10 |
| 07-02 | MLB Detroit Tigers Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5) | 69¢ (-219) | $5.05 | LOST −$5.05 |
| 07-02 | MLB Detroit Tigers Detroit Tigers vs. Texas Rangers | 52¢ (-107) | $5.07 | LOST −$5.07 |
| 07-02 | MLB Pittsburgh Pirates Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) | 63¢ (-168) | $5.05 | WON +$3.01 |
| 07-01 | MLB San Francisco Giants Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5) | 63¢ (-168) | $5.05 | WON +$3.01 |
| 07-01 | MLB San Francisco Giants San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks | 47¢ (+114) | $5.08 | WON +$5.79 |
| 07-01 | MLB Toronto Blue Jays Spread: New York Mets (-1.5) | 64¢ (-175) | $5.06 | WON +$2.88 |
| 07-01 | MLB Toronto Blue Jays New York Mets vs. Toronto Blue Jays | 53¢ (-112) | $5.07 | WON +$4.54 |
| 07-01 | MLB San Diego Padres Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) | 64¢ (-175) | $5.06 | LOST −$5.06 |
| 07-01 | MLB San Diego Padres San Diego Padres vs. Chicago Cubs | 48¢ (+107) | $5.08 | LOST −$5.08 |
| 07-01 | MLB Detroit Tigers Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) | 64¢ (-175) | $5.06 | WON +$2.88 |
| 07-01 | MLB Detroit Tigers Detroit Tigers vs. New York Yankees | 48¢ (+109) | $5.08 | WON +$5.56 |
| 07-01 | MLB Cleveland Guardians Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5) | 66¢ (-191) | $5.05 | WON +$2.64 |
| 07-01 | MLB Cleveland Guardians Texas Rangers vs. Cleveland Guardians | 54¢ (-116) | $5.07 | WON +$4.36 |
| 07-01 | MLB Chicago White Sox Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5) | 60¢ (-148) | $5.06 | LOST −$5.06 |
| 07-01 | MLB Chicago White Sox Chicago White Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles | 43¢ (+134) | $5.08 | LOST −$5.08 |
| 06-30 | MLB Arizona Diamondbacks Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5) | 64¢ (-175) | $3.54 | WON +$2.02 |
| 06-30 | MLB Arizona Diamondbacks San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks | 53¢ (-112) | $3.55 | WON +$3.18 |
| 06-30 | MLB Los Angeles Angels Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5) | 59¢ (-142) | $3.54 | LOST −$3.54 |
| 06-30 | MLB Los Angeles Angels Los Angeles Angels vs. Seattle Mariners | 37¢ (+173) | $3.57 | LOST −$3.57 |
| 06-30 | MLB Houston Astros Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5) | 63¢ (-168) | $3.54 | WON +$2.11 |
| 06-30 | MLB Houston Astros Minnesota Twins vs. Houston Astros | 50¢ (+101) | $3.55 | WON +$3.59 |
| 06-30 | MLB Washington Nationals Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5) | 64¢ (-175) | $3.54 | WON +$2.02 |
| 06-30 | MLB Washington Nationals Washington Nationals vs. Boston Red Sox | 45¢ (+124) | $3.56 | WON +$4.39 |
| 06-30 | MLB Chicago White Sox Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5) | 59¢ (-142) | $3.54 | WON +$2.49 |
| 06-30 | MLB Chicago White Sox Chicago White Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles | 44¢ (+129) | $3.56 | WON +$4.58 |
| 06-29 | MLB Los Angeles Angels Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5) | 56¢ (-126) | $3.55 | LOST −$3.55 |
| 06-29 | MLB Los Angeles Angels Los Angeles Angels vs. Seattle Mariners | 36¢ (+180) | $3.57 | LOST −$3.57 |
| 06-29 | World Cup Yes Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? | 42¢ (+140) | $4.85 | LOST −$4.85 |
| 06-29 | MLB Detroit Tigers Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) | 64¢ (-175) | $3.54 | WON +$2.02 |
| 06-29 | MLB Detroit Tigers Detroit Tigers vs. New York Yankees | 46¢ (+119) | $3.56 | WON +$4.22 |
| 06-29 | MLB Philadelphia Phillies Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5) | 64¢ (-175) | $3.54 | LOST −$3.54 |
| 06-29 | MLB Chicago White Sox Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5) | 64¢ (-175) | $3.54 | WON +$2.02 |
| 06-29 | MLB Chicago White Sox Chicago White Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles | 46¢ (+119) | $3.56 | WON +$4.22 |
| 06-28 | MLB New York Yankees Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5) | 68¢ (-209) | $3.53 | WON +$1.69 |
| 06-28 | MLB New York Yankees New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox | 51¢ (-103) | $3.55 | LOST −$3.55 |
| 06-28 | WNBA Las Vegas Aces Las Vegas Aces vs. Chicago Sky | 75¢ (-293) | $4.91 | WON +$1.67 |
| 06-28 | MLB Los Angeles Angels Spread: Athletics (-1.5) | 62¢ (-161) | $3.54 | WON +$2.20 |
| 06-28 | MLB Los Angeles Angels Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels | 52¢ (-107) | $3.55 | WON +$3.31 |
| 06-28 | MLB Miami Marlins Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5) | 65¢ (-183) | $3.54 | WON +$1.93 |
| 06-28 | MLB Miami Marlins Miami Marlins vs. St. Louis Cardinals | 49¢ (+105) | $3.55 | LOST −$3.55 |
| 06-28 | MLB Chicago Cubs Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) | 60¢ (-148) | $3.54 | WON +$2.39 |
| 06-28 | MLB Chicago Cubs Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers | 41¢ (+146) | $3.56 | WON +$5.19 |
| 06-28 | MLB Arizona Diamondbacks Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) | 56¢ (-126) | $3.55 | LOST −$3.55 |
| 06-28 | MLB Arizona Diamondbacks Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Tampa Bay Rays | 38¢ (+165) | $3.57 | LOST −$3.57 |
| 06-28 | MLB Seattle Mariners Seattle Mariners vs. Cleveland Guardians | 48¢ (+109) | $3.56 | LOST −$3.56 |
| 06-28 | MLB Texas Rangers Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5) | 64¢ (-175) | $3.54 | WON +$2.02 |
| 06-28 | MLB Texas Rangers Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays | 46¢ (+119) | $3.56 | WON +$4.22 |
| 06-28 | MLB Washington Nationals Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5) | 54¢ (-116) | $3.55 | WON +$3.05 |
| 06-28 | MLB Washington Nationals Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore Orioles | 37¢ (+173) | $3.57 | WON +$6.15 |
| 06-28 | MLB Cincinnati Reds Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5) | 64¢ (-175) | $3.54 | LOST −$3.54 |
| 06-28 | MLB Cincinnati Reds Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates | 46¢ (+119) | $3.56 | LOST −$3.56 |
| 06-28 | World Cup Yes Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? | 59¢ (-142) | $4.81 | WON +$3.38 |
| 06-27 | MLB Athletics Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels | 51¢ (-103) | $3.55 | LOST −$3.55 |
| 06-27 | MLB Atlanta Braves Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5) | 65¢ (-183) | $3.54 | LOST −$3.54 |
| 06-27 | MLB Atlanta Braves Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants | 47¢ (+114) | $3.56 | LOST −$3.56 |
| 06-27 | MLB Colorado Rockies Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5) | 62¢ (-161) | $3.54 | WON +$2.20 |
| 06-27 | MLB Colorado Rockies Colorado Rockies vs. Minnesota Twins | 45¢ (+124) | $3.56 | WON +$4.39 |
| 06-27 | MLB Cleveland Guardians Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5) | 57¢ (-131) | $3.55 | WON +$2.70 |
| 06-27 | MLB Cleveland Guardians Seattle Mariners vs. Cleveland Guardians | 44¢ (+129) | $3.56 | WON +$4.58 |
| 06-27 | MLB Chicago Cubs Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) | 60¢ (-148) | $3.54 | WON +$2.39 |
| 06-27 | MLB Chicago Cubs Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers | 43¢ (+134) | $3.56 | WON +$4.77 |
| 06-27 | MLB Washington Nationals Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5) | 68¢ (-209) | $3.53 | WON +$1.69 |
| 06-27 | MLB Washington Nationals Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore Orioles | 51¢ (-103) | $3.55 | WON +$3.45 |
| 06-27 | MLB Arizona Diamondbacks Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) | 62¢ (-161) | $3.54 | LOST −$3.54 |
| 06-27 | MLB Arizona Diamondbacks Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Tampa Bay Rays | 46¢ (+119) | $3.56 | LOST −$3.56 |
| 06-27 | MLB Philadelphia Phillies Spread: New York Mets (-1.5) | 63¢ (-168) | $3.54 | LOST −$3.54 |
| 06-27 | MLB Philadelphia Phillies Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets | 47¢ (+114) | $3.56 | LOST −$3.56 |
| 06-27 | MLB Texas Rangers Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays | 38¢ (+165) | $3.57 | WON +$5.89 |
| 06-27 | MLB Houston Astros Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5) | 63¢ (-168) | $3.54 | WON +$2.11 |
| 06-27 | MLB Houston Astros Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers | 46¢ (+119) | $3.56 | WON +$4.22 |
| 06-26 | World Cup No Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? | 65¢ (-183) | $4.83 | WON +$2.63 |
| 06-26 | MLB Miami Marlins Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5) | 69¢ (-219) | $3.54 | WON +$1.61 |
| 06-26 | MLB Miami Marlins Miami Marlins vs. St. Louis Cardinals | 52¢ (-107) | $3.55 | WON +$3.31 |
| 06-26 | MLB Colorado Rockies Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5) | 57¢ (-131) | $3.55 | WON +$2.70 |
| 06-26 | MLB Colorado Rockies Colorado Rockies vs. Minnesota Twins | 41¢ (+146) | $3.56 | LOST −$3.56 |
| 06-26 | MLB Chicago Cubs Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) | 51¢ (-103) | $3.55 | LOST −$3.55 |
| 06-26 | MLB Chicago Cubs Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers | 33¢ (+206) | $3.57 | LOST −$3.57 |
| 06-26 | MLB Kansas City Royals Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5) | 65¢ (-183) | $3.54 | LOST −$3.54 |
| 06-26 | MLB Kansas City Royals Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox | 47¢ (+114) | $3.56 | LOST −$3.56 |
| 06-26 | MLB Seattle Mariners Seattle Mariners vs. Cleveland Guardians | 51¢ (-103) | $3.55 | WON +$3.45 |
| 06-26 | MLB Toronto Blue Jays Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5) | 64¢ (-175) | $3.54 | WON +$2.02 |
| 06-26 | MLB Toronto Blue Jays Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays | 53¢ (-112) | $3.55 | LOST −$3.55 |
| 06-26 | MLB Washington Nationals Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5) | 63¢ (-168) | $3.54 | LOST −$3.54 |
| 06-26 | MLB Washington Nationals Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore Orioles | 46¢ (+119) | $3.56 | LOST −$3.56 |
| 06-26 | MLB Houston Astros Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5) | 67¢ (-200) | $3.53 | LOST −$3.53 |
| 06-26 | MLB Houston Astros Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers | 51¢ (-103) | $3.55 | LOST −$3.55 |
| 06-26 | MLB Cincinnati Reds Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5) | 58¢ (-137) | $3.54 | WON +$2.60 |
| 06-26 | MLB Cincinnati Reds Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates | 39¢ (+158) | $3.56 | WON +$5.65 |
| 06-26 | World Cup Yes Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? | 61¢ (-155) | $4.89 | WON +$3.17 |
| 06-26 | World Cup No Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26? | 93¢ (-1370) | $4.90 | WON +$0.36 |
| 06-25 | MLB Arizona Diamondbacks Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5) | 63¢ (-168) | $3.54 | SOLD −$0.76 |
| 06-25 | MLB Arizona Diamondbacks Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals | 46¢ (+119) | $3.56 | SOLD +$0.35 |
| 06-25 | MLB Chicago Cubs Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets | 53¢ (-112) | $3.55 | WON +$3.18 |
| 06-25 | MLB Texas Rangers Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5) | 64¢ (-175) | $3.54 | WON +$2.02 |
| 06-25 | MLB Texas Rangers Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays | 45¢ (+124) | $3.56 | WON +$4.39 |
| 06-25 | MLB Washington Nationals Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) | 52¢ (-107) | $3.55 | LOST −$3.55 |
| 06-25 | MLB Washington Nationals Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals | 40¢ (+152) | $3.56 | LOST −$3.56 |
| 06-25 | MLB Athletics Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5) | 64¢ (-175) | $3.54 | WON +$2.02 |
| 06-25 | MLB Athletics Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants | 46¢ (+119) | $3.56 | WON +$4.22 |
| 06-24 | MLB Arizona Diamondbacks Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals | 50¢ (+101) | $3.55 | WON +$3.59 |
| 06-24 | MLB Houston Astros Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5) | 62¢ (-161) | $3.54 | WON +$2.20 |
| 06-24 | MLB Houston Astros Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays | 45¢ (+124) | $3.56 | WON +$4.39 |
| 06-24 | MLB Kansas City Royals Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) | 63¢ (-168) | $3.54 | LOST −$3.54 |
| 06-24 | MLB Kansas City Royals Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays | 44¢ (+129) | $3.56 | LOST −$3.56 |
| 06-24 | MLB Seattle Mariners Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates | 51¢ (-103) | $3.55 | LOST −$3.55 |
| 06-24 | MLB New York Yankees Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5) | 66¢ (-191) | $3.53 | WON +$1.85 |
| 06-24 | MLB New York Yankees New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers | 47¢ (+114) | $3.56 | WON +$4.05 |
| 06-24 | MLB Baltimore Orioles Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5) | 66¢ (-191) | $3.53 | WON +$1.85 |
| 06-24 | MLB Baltimore Orioles Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels | 50¢ (+101) | $3.55 | LOST −$3.55 |
| 06-24 | MLB Chicago White Sox Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5) | 63¢ (-168) | $3.54 | WON +$2.11 |
| 06-24 | MLB Chicago White Sox Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox | 51¢ (-103) | $3.55 | LOST −$3.55 |
| 06-24 | MLB Miami Marlins Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5) | 62¢ (-161) | $3.54 | WON +$2.20 |
| 06-24 | MLB Miami Marlins Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins | 50¢ (+101) | $3.55 | WON +$3.59 |
| 06-24 | World Cup Under Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 | 39¢ (+158) | $4.84 | LOST −$4.84 |
| 06-23 | MLB Athletics Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5) | 62¢ (-161) | $3.54 | LOST −$3.54 |
| 06-23 | MLB Athletics Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants | 45¢ (+124) | $3.56 | LOST −$3.56 |
| 06-23 | MLB San Diego Padres Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) | 63¢ (-168) | $3.54 | WON +$2.11 |
| 06-23 | MLB San Diego Padres Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres | 52¢ (-107) | $3.55 | WON +$3.31 |
| 06-23 | MLB Arizona Diamondbacks Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5) | 69¢ (-219) | $3.54 | WON +$1.61 |
| 06-23 | MLB Arizona Diamondbacks Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals | 50¢ (+101) | $3.55 | WON +$3.59 |
| 06-23 | MLB Chicago White Sox Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5) | 65¢ (-183) | $3.54 | WON +$1.93 |
| 06-23 | MLB Chicago White Sox Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox | 50¢ (+101) | $3.55 | WON +$3.59 |
| 06-23 | MLB Cincinnati Reds Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) | 62¢ (-161) | $3.54 | LOST −$3.54 |
| 06-23 | MLB Cincinnati Reds Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds | 53¢ (-112) | $3.55 | LOST −$3.55 |
| 06-23 | MLB Chicago Cubs Spread: New York Mets (-1.5) | 69¢ (-219) | $3.54 | WON +$1.61 |
| 06-23 | MLB Chicago Cubs Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets | 53¢ (-112) | $3.55 | WON +$3.18 |
| 06-23 | MLB Washington Nationals Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) | 52¢ (-107) | $3.55 | LOST −$3.55 |
| 06-23 | MLB Washington Nationals Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals | 40¢ (+152) | $3.56 | LOST −$3.56 |
| 06-23 | MLB Detroit Tigers Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) | 63¢ (-168) | $3.54 | WON +$2.11 |
| 06-23 | MLB Detroit Tigers New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers | 50¢ (+101) | $3.55 | LOST −$3.55 |
| 06-23 | MLB Texas Rangers Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5) | 60¢ (-148) | $3.54 | LOST −$3.54 |
| 06-23 | MLB Texas Rangers Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins | 41¢ (+146) | $3.56 | LOST −$3.56 |
| 06-23 | World Cup No Will England win on 2026-06-23? | 17¢ (+474) | $4.36 | WON +$20.64 |
| 06-22 | MLB San Diego Padres Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) | 66¢ (-191) | $3.53 | WON +$1.85 |
| 06-22 | MLB San Diego Padres Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres | 53¢ (-112) | $3.55 | WON +$3.18 |
| 06-22 | MLB Colorado Rockies Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5) | 55¢ (-121) | $3.55 | WON +$2.93 |
| 06-22 | MLB Colorado Rockies Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies | 46¢ (+119) | $3.56 | WON +$4.22 |
| 06-22 | MLB Chicago White Sox Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5) | 65¢ (-183) | $3.54 | WON +$1.93 |
| 06-22 | MLB Chicago White Sox Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox | 51¢ (-103) | $3.55 | WON +$3.45 |
| 06-22 | MLB Houston Astros Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5) | 67¢ (-200) | $3.53 | LOST −$3.53 |
| 06-22 | MLB Houston Astros Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays | 46¢ (+119) | $3.56 | LOST −$3.56 |
| 06-22 | MLB Philadelphia Phillies Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5) | 64¢ (-175) | $3.54 | LOST −$3.54 |
| 06-22 | MLB Philadelphia Phillies Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals | 49¢ (+105) | $3.55 | LOST −$3.55 |
| 06-22 | MLB Kansas City Royals Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) | 57¢ (-131) | $3.55 | WON +$2.70 |
| 06-22 | MLB Kansas City Royals Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays | 39¢ (+158) | $3.56 | WON +$5.65 |
| 06-22 | World Cup No Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? | 61¢ (-155) | $4.82 | LOST −$4.82 |
| 06-21 | World Cup No Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? | 42¢ (+140) | $4.85 | LOST −$4.85 |
| 06-21 | MLB Boston Red Sox Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners | 48¢ (+109) | $5.08 | LOST −$5.08 |
| 06-21 | MLB Los Angeles Angels Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics | 47¢ (+114) | $5.08 | WON +$5.79 |
| 06-21 | MLB San Diego Padres San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers | 42¢ (+140) | $5.09 | LOST −$5.09 |
| 06-21 | MLB Cleveland Guardians Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros | 46¢ (+119) | $5.08 | LOST −$5.08 |
| 06-20 | World Cup No Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? | 32¢ (+216) | $4.65 | LOST −$4.65 |
| 06-20 | MLB Los Angeles Angels Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics | 42¢ (+140) | $5.09 | WON +$7.11 |
| 06-20 | MLB Cleveland Guardians Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros | 43¢ (+134) | $5.08 | WON +$6.82 |
| 06-20 | MLB Washington Nationals Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays | 49¢ (+105) | $5.08 | WON +$5.34 |
| 06-20 | World Cup No Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? | 88¢ (-756) | $4.85 | WON +$0.64 |
| 06-20 | World Cup No Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? | 81¢ (-439) | $4.85 | WON +$1.10 |
| 06-19 | World Cup No Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score | 49¢ (+105) | $4.78 | WON +$5.02 |
| 06-19 | World Cup No Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? | 78¢ (-345) | $4.78 | LOST −$4.78 |
| 06-19 | World Cup No Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? | 50¢ (-102) | $9.48 | WON −$0.71 |
| 06-19 | MLB Minnesota Twins Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks | 40¢ (+152) | $5.09 | LOST −$5.09 |
| 06-19 | MLB Los Angeles Angels Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics | 44¢ (+129) | $5.09 | LOST −$5.09 |
| 06-19 | MLB San Diego Padres San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers | 42¢ (+140) | $5.09 | LOST −$5.09 |
| 06-19 | MLB Cleveland Guardians Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros | 48¢ (+109) | $5.08 | LOST −$5.08 |
| 06-19 | MLB Washington Nationals Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays | 42¢ (+140) | $5.09 | LOST −$5.09 |
| 06-19 | MLB Chicago White Sox Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers | 36¢ (+180) | $5.10 | LOST −$5.10 |
| 06-19 | World Cup No Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? | 85¢ (-584) | $4.85 | WON +$0.83 |
| 06-19 | World Cup No Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? | 83¢ (-503) | $4.85 | WON +$0.96 |
| 06-18 | MLB Chicago White Sox Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees | 40¢ (+152) | $5.09 | WON +$7.73 |
| 06-18 | MLB Cleveland Guardians Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers | 44¢ (+129) | $5.09 | WON +$6.54 |
| 06-18 | MLB Toronto Blue Jays Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox | 46¢ (+119) | $5.08 | WON +$6.03 |
| 06-17 | MLB Baltimore Orioles Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners | 46¢ (+119) | $5.08 | WON +$6.03 |
| 06-17 | MLB Cleveland Guardians Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers | 48¢ (+109) | $5.08 | LOST −$5.08 |
| 06-16 | MLB Los Angeles Angels Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks | 52¢ (-107) | $5.07 | WON +$4.73 |
| 06-16 | MLB Baltimore Orioles Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners | 44¢ (+129) | $5.09 | LOST −$5.09 |
| 06-16 | MLB Pittsburgh Pirates Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics | 44¢ (+129) | $5.09 | WON +$6.54 |
| 06-16 | MLB Colorado Rockies Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs | 35¢ (+188) | $5.10 | WON +$9.61 |
| 06-16 | MLB Cleveland Guardians Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers | 43¢ (+134) | $5.08 | LOST −$5.08 |
| 06-16 | MLB Miami Marlins Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies | 39¢ (+158) | $5.09 | LOST −$5.09 |
| 06-15 | MLB Pittsburgh Pirates Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics | 48¢ (+109) | $5.08 | LOST −$5.08 |
| 06-15 | MLB San Diego Padres San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals | 42¢ (+140) | $5.09 | LOST −$5.09 |
| 06-15 | MLB Miami Marlins Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies | 37¢ (+173) | $5.10 | LOST −$5.10 |
| 06-14 | MLB Los Angeles Angels Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels | 50¢ (+101) | $5.07 | LOST −$5.07 |
| 06-14 | MLB Chicago Cubs Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants | 47¢ (+114) | $5.08 | LOST −$5.08 |
| 06-14 | MLB St. Louis Cardinals St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins | 51¢ (-103) | $5.08 | LOST −$5.08 |
| 06-14 | MLB San Diego Padres San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles | 45¢ (+124) | $5.08 | WON +$6.28 |
| 06-14 | MLB Miami Marlins Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates | 44¢ (+129) | $5.09 | WON +$6.54 |
| 06-13 | MLB Colorado Rockies Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics | 42¢ (+140) | $5.09 | LOST −$5.09 |
| 06-12 | MLB Miami Marlins Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates | 48¢ (+107) | $10.16 | LOST −$10.16 |
| 06-12 | MLB Philadelphia Phillies Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers | 33¢ (+206) | $5.10 | LOST −$5.10 |
| 06-11 | MLB St. Louis Cardinals St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets | 44¢ (+129) | $5.09 | LOST −$5.09 |
| 06-11 | MLB Texas Rangers Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals | 50¢ (+101) | $5.08 | WON +$5.13 |
| 06-10 | MLB Baltimore Orioles Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles | 50¢ (+101) | $5.08 | WON +$5.13 |
| 06-10 | MLB Toronto Blue Jays Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays | 46¢ (+119) | $5.08 | LOST −$5.08 |
| 06-09 | MLB Minnesota Twins Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers | 47¢ (+114) | $5.08 | LOST −$5.08 |
| 06-09 | MLB Tampa Bay Rays Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays | 48¢ (+109) | $5.08 | WON +$5.56 |
Method: rows are grouped from raw on-chain fills by market (conditionId). Cost is the true
USDC paid (fills run pennies over the nominal stake). WON = the position redeemed (redeems sweep automatically);
SOLD = closed early at market (e.g. a postponed game's tickets); LOST = resolved with no payout. Entry is the
volume-weighted fill price. Anyone can verify any row against the wallet:
0x645517ff855ffb18b130084e3ac875226c31caf4.
One caveat about Polymarket's own profile widget: it shows a higher lifetime P&L for this account
than the table above. The number here is the one that reconciles with the wallet to the penny
(deposits in, cash out — bank-statement arithmetic); the profile widget's P&L pipeline is known to
mis-merge same-title markets from consecutive days and can't be squared with the actual balance. When a
scoreboard flatters you, check it against the cash.
Honesty box
Stakes are deliberately toy-sized ($5 flat) while the model's live sample matures — this is an experiment journal, not investment advice, and the sample is small enough that most of what you see is variance. Plays come from the same signals published nightly in The Grind. The one editorial choice on this page is the grouping into one row per market; the raw fills are public chain data.
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