Wednesday, August 19, 2026
Underdogs covered the runline 11-4 and won outright 7-8 across 15 graded games. Below: the slate result, the plays our models fired — full stake and reduced (provisional) stake — and the games our discipline guard told us to pass.
Actionable plays
No plays qualified today. A documented pass is a position too.
Model track record (season to date)
| Model | Runline record | Cover % |
|---|---|---|
| Full-stake plays (Rule A/B) | 59-43 | 57.8% |
| Reduced-stake plays (line-cooling) | 163-90 | 64.4% |
How to read this: the totals above are season-to-date and include our pre-launch backtest (Mar 27–May 11), when these rules were still being fit to past data — so they overstate what was bettable in real time. The honest out-of-sample record, since the rules locked on May 12: full-stake plays 31-36 (46.3%), reduced-stake plays 151-83 (64.5%). Records are recomputed straight from our logged game-by-game data every night. Stand-down (WATCH) results — 9-6 this season — are excluded entirely, even though they'd improve the headline.
← Back to The Grind