Tuesday, August 4, 2026
Underdogs covered the runline 7-8 and won outright 5-10 across 15 graded games. Below: the slate result, the plays our models fired — full stake and reduced (provisional) stake — and the games our discipline guard told us to pass.
Actionable plays
| Side | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Nationals | Full stake | Lost |
| Athletics | Reduced stake | Covered +1.5 (lost outright) |
| Royals | Reduced stake | Won outright (+ covered) |
| Giants | Full stake | Covered +1.5 (lost outright) |
Actionable plays we fire pre-game: full-confidence (Rule A/B) plays at standard stake and provisional (line-cooling, Rule C) plays at reduced stake. Provisional plays carry a smaller stake while that model is still proving out.
Model track record (season to date)
| Model | Runline record | Cover % |
|---|---|---|
| Full-stake plays (Rule A/B) | 54-38 | 58.7% |
| Reduced-stake plays (line-cooling) | 137-72 | 65.6% |
How to read this: the totals above are season-to-date and include our pre-launch backtest (Mar 27–May 11), when these rules were still being fit to past data — so they overstate what was bettable in real time. The honest out-of-sample record, since the rules locked on May 12: full-stake plays 26-31 (45.6%), reduced-stake plays 125-65 (65.8%). Records are recomputed straight from our logged game-by-game data every night. Stand-down (WATCH) results — 9-6 this season — are excluded entirely, even though they'd improve the headline.
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