Saturday, July 25, 2026
Underdogs covered the runline 9-6 and won outright 7-8 across 15 graded games. Below: the slate result, the plays our models fired — full stake and reduced (provisional) stake — and the games our discipline guard told us to pass.
Actionable plays
| Side | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Guardians | Full stake | Lost |
| Rangers | Reduced stake | Won outright (+ covered) |
Actionable plays we fire pre-game: full-confidence (Rule A/B) plays at standard stake and provisional (line-cooling, Rule C) plays at reduced stake. Provisional plays carry a smaller stake while that model is still proving out.
Model track record (season to date)
| Model | Runline record | Cover % |
|---|---|---|
| Full-stake plays (Rule A/B) | 53-36 | 59.6% |
| Reduced-stake plays (line-cooling) | 128-65 | 66.3% |
How to read this: the totals above are season-to-date and include our pre-launch backtest (Mar 27–May 11), when these rules were still being fit to past data — so they overstate what was bettable in real time. The honest out-of-sample record, since the rules locked on May 12: full-stake plays 25-29 (46.3%), reduced-stake plays 116-58 (66.7%). Records are recomputed straight from our logged game-by-game data every night. Stand-down (WATCH) results — 9-6 this season — are excluded entirely, even though they'd improve the headline.
← Back to The Grind