Sunday, July 5, 2026
Underdogs covered the runline 10-5 and won outright 8-7 across 15 graded games. Below: the slate result, the plays our models fired — full stake and reduced (provisional) stake — and the games our discipline guard told us to pass.
Actionable plays
| Side | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Pirates | Reduced stake | Won outright (+ covered) |
| Reds | Full stake | Won outright (+ covered) |
| Twins | Reduced stake | Won outright (+ covered) |
| White Sox | Reduced stake | Won outright (+ covered) |
| Rockies | Reduced stake | Won outright (+ covered) |
| Diamondbacks | Reduced stake | Covered +1.5 (lost outright) |
| Blue Jays | Full stake | Lost |
| Padres | Reduced stake | Won outright (+ covered) |
Actionable plays we fire pre-game: full-confidence (Rule A/B) plays at standard stake and provisional (line-cooling, Rule C) plays at reduced stake. Provisional plays carry a smaller stake while that model is still proving out.
Model track record (season to date)
| Model | Runline record | Cover % |
|---|---|---|
| Full-stake plays (Rule A/B) | 50-29 | 63.3% |
| Reduced-stake plays (line-cooling) | 106-46 | 69.7% |
How to read this: the totals above are season-to-date and include our pre-launch backtest (Mar 27–May 11), when these rules were still being fit to past data — so they overstate what was bettable in real time. The honest out-of-sample record, since the rules locked on May 12: full-stake plays 22-22 (50.0%), reduced-stake plays 94-39 (70.7%). Records are recomputed straight from our logged game-by-game data every night. Stand-down (WATCH) results — 9-6 this season — are excluded entirely, even though they'd improve the headline.
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