The Daily Grind

Friday, June 26, 2026

Underdogs covered the runline 6-9 and won outright 3-12 across 15 graded games. Below: the slate result, the plays our models fired — full stake and reduced (provisional) stake — and the games our discipline guard told us to pass.

The live ledger — a day to flush

Honest accounting cuts both ways, so here's a red one. The favorites buried the slate — White Sox 22-1, Tigers 8-0, Rays 6-1, Red Sox 6-1, Padres 7-1 — and underdogs went just 3-12 outright. The model's three reduced-stake plays went 2-1 on the runline but 1-2 outright (Reds cashed a fade of a −200 Pirates favorite; the Rockies covered in a 1-run loss; the Royals got run off the field 22-1). The full live book finished 7-10, −$13.33 — the worst day in a week. Variance is the price of admission; you don't get the +$12 days without the −$13 ones. The bankroll's on the ML Theory page, losses and all — that's the whole point of keeping it in public.

Actionable plays

Actionable plays we fire pre-game: provisional (line-cooling, Rule C) plays at reduced stake. Provisional plays carry a smaller stake while that model is still proving out.

Model track record (season to date)

How to read this: the totals above are season-to-date and include our pre-launch backtest (Mar 27–May 11), when these rules were still being fit to past data — so they overstate what was bettable in real time. The honest out-of-sample record, since the rules locked on May 12: full-stake plays 18-18 (50.0%), reduced-stake plays 81-33 (71.1%). Records are recomputed straight from our logged game-by-game data every night. Stand-down (WATCH) results — 7-4 this season — are excluded entirely, even though they'd improve the headline.

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