The Moneyline Theory
Live experiment, started June 9, 2026 · updated nightly at grade time
Our model's validated edge is the underdog +1.5 runline — but that cover typically costs −150 to −190 juice. The theory we're testing: the same late sharp money that predicts covers also predicts outright wins often enough that the plus-money moneyline is the better hold. So we're betting the ML with real money, flat $5 from a $20 bankroll, at real Polymarket CLOB prices — and tracking both answers side by side.
The scoreboard: what we bet vs. what the model validates
Moneyline (what we bet)
4-3 · +$6.90 on $35 staked
Real fills, real money. Wins pay plus-money (+104 to +122 so far), so one winner buys two losers.
+1.5 runline (the validated edge)
4-3 · −$3.03 hypothetical at the same $5
Same games, priced at Polymarket's real pre-pitch +1.5 ask (our automated snapshot feed). This is the control arm.
Every bet, on the record
| Date | Bet | Entry | Stake | ML result | +1.5 same game (control) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-12 | Phillies ML Phillies @ Brewers | 32¢ (+212) | $5 | LOST −$5.10 | No cover +104 → −$5.10 |
| 06-12 | Marlins ML Marlins @ Pirates | 46¢ (+117) | $5 | WON +$5.96 | Covered -156 → +$3.25 |
| 06-11 | Rangers ML Rangers @ Royals | 49¢ (+104) | $5 | WON +$5.20 | Covered -186 → +$2.69 |
| 06-10 | Orioles ML Mariners @ Orioles | 49¢ (+104) | $5 | WON +$5.20 | Covered -163 → +$3.06 |
| 06-10 | Blue Jays ML Phillies @ Blue Jays | 45¢ (+122) | $5 | LOST −$5.00 | No cover -133 → −$5.00 |
| 06-09 | Twins ML Twins @ Tigers | 46¢ (+117) | $5 | LOST −$5.00 | No cover -178 → −$5.00 |
| 06-09 | Rays ML Red Sox @ Rays | 47¢ (+113) | $5 | WON +$5.64 | Covered -163 → +$3.06 |
Entries are actual Polymarket CLOB fills (verifiable on-chain). The +1.5 control uses the last pre-first-pitch Polymarket ask captured by our 30-minute snapshot feed — no after-the-fact prices, no best-odds-screenshot inflation.
Off-script bets (full disclosure): 1 discretionary in-game bet outside the system, −$5.00 total — counted in the bankroll above, excluded from the experiment arms. The system did not pick these; a human did.
Honesty box
This is an experiment journal, not a track record — the sample is tiny and $5 stakes are intentionally toy-sized while the model's live sample matures. Plays come from the same signals published nightly in The Grind; the table lists settled bets only — this page is a results journal, not a tout sheet. Our EV gate currently grades most of these prices MARGINAL — the point estimate clears, the 95% confidence band doesn't. That's exactly why the stakes are small.
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