The Daily Grind

Thursday, June 25, 2026

Underdogs covered the runline 6-2 and won outright 6-2 across 8 graded games (1 postponed). Below: the slate result, the plays our models fired — full stake and reduced (provisional) stake — and the games our discipline guard told us to pass.

The live ledger — another green day

Underdogs went 6-2 on the runline, and all three of the model's plays cashed — Rangers (full stake) plus Athletics and Cubs (reduced stake), a clean 3-0 outright and 3-0 on the spread. The live book finished 5-2, +$9.08 (two Diamondbacks tickets were voided and refunded when ARI@STL was postponed). That's now four green days out of the last five for the live system. One honest footnote: we also bet the Nationals as a full-confidence play off the morning line, but by the closing line it no longer graded as a qualified fire — and it lost — so it sits in the real-money ledger but not the model record. We keep both books on purpose. Full bankroll on the ML Theory page.

Actionable plays

Actionable plays we fire pre-game: full-confidence (Rule A/B) plays at standard stake and provisional (line-cooling, Rule C) plays at reduced stake. Provisional plays carry a smaller stake while that model is still proving out.

Model track record (season to date)

How to read this: the totals above are season-to-date and include our pre-launch backtest (Mar 27–May 11), when these rules were still being fit to past data — so they overstate what was bettable in real time. The honest out-of-sample record, since the rules locked on May 12: full-stake plays 18-18 (50.0%), reduced-stake plays 79-32 (71.2%). Records are recomputed straight from our logged game-by-game data every night. Stand-down (WATCH) results — 7-4 this season — are excluded entirely, even though they'd improve the headline.

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