The Daily Grind

Tuesday, June 23, 2026

Underdogs covered the runline 9-6 and won outright 6-9 across 15 graded games. Below: the slate result, the plays our models fired — full stake and reduced (provisional) stake — and the games our discipline guard told us to pass.

The live ledger — a down day

The strict-rules table below shows four plays (one full-stake, three reduced) going a respectable 3-1 on the runline. But the fuller picture — every underdog our live system actually backed under the new bet-everything-tiny plan — was a losing day: 9-9 on 18 tickets, −$8.06, our first red day since the switch. Four dogs won outright (Cubs, White Sox, Diamondbacks, Padres), one split a runline cover, and four lost both sides. The running bankroll and the full bet-by-bet ledger live on the ML Theory page. A down day was always coming; the point of tiny stakes is that it costs eight dollars to learn, not eighty.

Actionable plays

Actionable plays we fire pre-game: full-confidence (Rule A/B) plays at standard stake and provisional (line-cooling, Rule C) plays at reduced stake. Provisional plays carry a smaller stake while that model is still proving out.

Model track record (season to date)

How to read this: the totals above are season-to-date and include our pre-launch backtest (Mar 27–May 11), when these rules were still being fit to past data — so they overstate what was bettable in real time. The honest out-of-sample record, since the rules locked on May 12: full-stake plays 17-18 (48.6%), reduced-stake plays 74-32 (69.8%). Records are recomputed straight from our logged game-by-game data every night. Stand-down (WATCH) results — 7-4 this season — are excluded entirely, even though they'd improve the headline.

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