Tuesday, May 26, 2026
Underdogs covered the runline 6-9 and won outright 5-10 across 15 graded games. Below: the slate result, the plays our models fired — full stake and reduced (provisional) stake — and the games our discipline guard told us to pass.
Actionable plays
| Side | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Marlins | Full stake | Lost |
| Nationals | Reduced stake | Won outright (+ covered) |
| Astros | Reduced stake | Lost |
| Athletics | Reduced stake | Lost |
Actionable plays we fire pre-game: full-confidence (Rule A/B) plays at standard stake and provisional (line-cooling, Rule C) plays at reduced stake. Provisional plays carry a smaller stake while that model is still proving out.
Stood down — no bet
Cubs, Braves. The discipline guard flags late line flips and odd closes and tells us to pass. Win or lose, we don't count games we didn't play.
Model track record (season to date)
| Model | Runline record | Cover % |
|---|---|---|
| Full-stake plays (Rule A/B) | 35-12 | 74.5% |
| Reduced-stake plays (line-cooling) | 35-20 | 63.6% |
How to read this: the totals above are season-to-date and include our pre-launch backtest (Mar 27–May 11), when these rules were still being fit to past data — so they overstate what was bettable in real time. The honest out-of-sample record, since the rules locked on May 12: full-stake plays 7-5 (58.3%), reduced-stake plays 23-13 (63.9%). Records are recomputed straight from our logged game-by-game data every night. Stand-down (WATCH) results — 5-1 this season — are excluded entirely, even though they'd improve the headline.
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