Thursday, May 21, 2026
Underdogs covered the runline 5-2 and won outright 3-4 across 7 graded games. Below: the slate result, the plays our models fired — full stake and reduced (provisional) stake — and the games our discipline guard told us to pass.
Actionable plays
| Side | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Nationals | Reduced stake | Covered +1.5 (lost outright) |
| Blue Jays | Reduced stake | Won outright (+ covered) |
Actionable plays we fire pre-game: provisional (line-cooling, Rule C) plays at reduced stake. Provisional plays carry a smaller stake while that model is still proving out.
Model track record (season to date)
| Model | Runline record | Cover % |
|---|---|---|
| Full-stake plays (Rule A/B) | 34-11 | 75.6% |
| Reduced-stake plays (line-cooling) | 30-15 | 66.7% |
How to read this: the totals above are season-to-date and include our pre-launch backtest (Mar 27–May 11), when these rules were still being fit to past data — so they overstate what was bettable in real time. The honest out-of-sample record, since the rules locked on May 12: full-stake plays 6-4 (60.0%), reduced-stake plays 18-8 (69.2%). Records are recomputed straight from our logged game-by-game data every night. Stand-down (WATCH) results — 2-0 this season — are excluded entirely, even though they'd improve the headline.
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